Rand Study Suggests U.S. Loses War With China
By wendell minnick
Defense News
Published: 16 Oct 11:45 EDT (15:45 GMT)
TAIPEI - A new RAND study suggests U.S. air power in the Pacific would be inadequate to thwart a Chinese attack on Taiwan in 2020. The study, entitled "Air Combat Past, Present and Future," by John Stillion and Scott Perdue, says China's anti-access arms and strategy could deny the U.S. the "ability to operate efficiently from nearby bases or seas."
According to the study, U.S. aircraft carriers and air bases would be threatened by Chinese development of anti-ship ballistic missiles, the fielding of diesel and nuclear submarines equipped with torpedoes and SS-N-22 and SS-N-27 anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs), fighters and bombers carrying ASCMs and HARMs, and new ballistic missiles and cruise missiles.
The report states that 34 missiles with submunition warheads could cover all parking ramps at Kadena Air Force Base, Okinawa.
An "attack like this could damage, destroy or strand 75 percent of aircraft based at Kadena," it says.
In contrast, many Chinese air bases are harder than Kadena, with some "super-hard underground hangers."
To make matters worse, Kadena is the only U.S. air base within 500 nautical miles of the Taiwan Strait, whereas China has 27.
U.S. air bases in South Korea are more than 750 miles distant, and those in Japan are more than 885 miles away. Anderson Air Force Base, Guam, is 1,500 miles away. The result is that sortie rates will be low, with a "huge tanker demand."
The authors suggest China's CETC Y-27 radar, which is similar to Russia's Nebo SVU VHF Digital AESA, could counter U.S. stealth fighter technology. China is likely to outfit its fighters with improved radars and by "2020 even very stealthy targets likely [would be] detectable by Flanker radars at 25+ nm." China is also likely to procure the new Su-35BM fighter by 2020, which will challenge the F-35 and possibly the F-22.
The authors also question the reliability of U.S. beyond-visual-range weapons, such as the AIM-120 AMRAAM. U.S. fighters have recorded only 10 AIM-120 kills, none against targets equipped with the kinds of countermeasures carried by Chinese Su-27s and Su-30s. Of the 10, six were beyond-visual-range kills, and it required 13 missiles to get them.
If a conflict breaks out between China and the U.S. over Taiwan, the authors say it is difficult to "predict who will have had the last move in the measure-countermeasure game."
Overall, the authors say, "China could enjoy a 3:1 edge in fighters if we can fly from Kadena - about 10:1 if forced to operate from Andersen. Overcoming these odds requires qualitative superiority of 9:1 or 100:1" - a differential that is "extremely difficult to achieve" against a like power.
If beyond-visual-range missiles work, stealth technology is not countered and air bases are not destroyed, U.S. forces have a chance, but "history suggests there is a limit of about 3:1 where quality can no longer compensate for superior enemy numbers."
A 24-aircraft Su-27/30 regiment can carry around 300 air-to-air missiles (AAMs), whereas 24 F-22s can carry only 192 AAMs and 24 F-35s only 96 AAMs.
Though current numbers assume the F-22 could shoot down 48 Chinese Flankers when "outnumbered 12:1 without loss," these numbers do not take into account a less-than-perfect U.S. beyond-visual-range performance, partial or complete destruction of U.S. air bases and aircraft carriers, possible deployment of a new Chinese stealth fighter around 2020 or 2025, and the possible use of Chinese "robo-fighters" to deplete U.S. "fighters' missile loadout prior to mass attack."
The authors write that Chinese counter stealth, anti-access, countermissile technologies are proliferating and the U.S. military needs "a plan that accounts for this."
Showing posts with label War Games. Show all posts
Showing posts with label War Games. Show all posts
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Thursday, August 09, 2007
Valiant Shield 2007
Valiant Shield 2007 Begins
By Trina A San Agustin
Variety News Staff
Tuesday 7 August 07
-------------------
VALIANT Shield 2007, the largest naval war games in Guam waters, began yesterday.
Participating in this year’s event are over 20,000 U.S. military personnel and three carrier strike groups — the USS John Stennis, the USS Nimitz, and the conventionally powered carrier the USS Kitty Hawk.
Valiant Shield ends on Aug. 13.
U.S. Air Force personnel are said to have 60 fighters, bombers, air refuel tankers, as well as cargo planes.
The Valiant Shield series of exercises focuses on integrated joint training among U.S. military forces and enhances real-world proficiency in sustaining joint forces and in detecting, locating, tracking and engaging units at sea, in the air, on land, and in cyberspace in response to the range of mission areas, according to the Valiant Shield 2007 Web site.
In addition to the field training exercises, staff training exercises will take place concurrently for the Joint Task Force. The task force consists of 519 staff and component staffs at their headquarters in Hawaii and San Diego, according to the Valiant Shield 2007 Web site.
The exercises will bring together Air Force and Navy personnel and their assets to “work through a range of war fighting skills such as maritime interdiction and command and control.”
“This exercise, the greatest concentration of naval and air power in the Western Pacific since the Vietnam War, demonstrates joint command, control and communications of U.S. forces while highlighting continued U.S. commitment to allies and friends of the region. We are also hosting observers from many nations, including China,” the Web site reads.
This is not the island’s first time to play host to a large exercise. Last summer, naval war games involved more than 22,000 U.S. military personnel, 30 ships, and 280 aircraft. Officials say the number of this year’s participants mirrors that of last year.
Because of this exercise, residents can expect more traffic on Guam roadways, an increase in retail shoppers, as well as increased foot traffic in Tumon as the participants of Valiant Shield may have several days off to visit the island.
By Trina A San Agustin
Variety News Staff
Tuesday 7 August 07
-------------------
VALIANT Shield 2007, the largest naval war games in Guam waters, began yesterday.
Participating in this year’s event are over 20,000 U.S. military personnel and three carrier strike groups — the USS John Stennis, the USS Nimitz, and the conventionally powered carrier the USS Kitty Hawk.
Valiant Shield ends on Aug. 13.
U.S. Air Force personnel are said to have 60 fighters, bombers, air refuel tankers, as well as cargo planes.
The Valiant Shield series of exercises focuses on integrated joint training among U.S. military forces and enhances real-world proficiency in sustaining joint forces and in detecting, locating, tracking and engaging units at sea, in the air, on land, and in cyberspace in response to the range of mission areas, according to the Valiant Shield 2007 Web site.
In addition to the field training exercises, staff training exercises will take place concurrently for the Joint Task Force. The task force consists of 519 staff and component staffs at their headquarters in Hawaii and San Diego, according to the Valiant Shield 2007 Web site.
The exercises will bring together Air Force and Navy personnel and their assets to “work through a range of war fighting skills such as maritime interdiction and command and control.”
“This exercise, the greatest concentration of naval and air power in the Western Pacific since the Vietnam War, demonstrates joint command, control and communications of U.S. forces while highlighting continued U.S. commitment to allies and friends of the region. We are also hosting observers from many nations, including China,” the Web site reads.
This is not the island’s first time to play host to a large exercise. Last summer, naval war games involved more than 22,000 U.S. military personnel, 30 ships, and 280 aircraft. Officials say the number of this year’s participants mirrors that of last year.
Because of this exercise, residents can expect more traffic on Guam roadways, an increase in retail shoppers, as well as increased foot traffic in Tumon as the participants of Valiant Shield may have several days off to visit the island.
Wednesday, August 08, 2007
Valiant Shield Tuma'lo
US Military Holding Massive War Games
Associated Press
Sunday, August 5, 2007 (Pearl Harbour)
http://www.ndtv.com/convergence/ndtv/story.aspx?id=NEWEN20070021509
--------------------------------
The US military expects to amass more than 22,000 troops off the coast of Guam starting on Tuesday for a weeklong exercise involving dozens of ships and hundreds of aircraft.
''The exercise demonstrates to our friends and allies in the Asia-Pacific ... how important the security of the region is to the United States,'' said Navy Captain Matt Loughlin, deputy chief of staff for Task Force 519, the Hawaii-based unit directing the drills.
Last year's exercises coincided with rising tensions over a possible test launch of a North Korean long-range missile, prompting two ships participating in the games to be assigned off the Korean coast to monitor the activity.
US military officials at the time stressed the exercises were not held in response to the North Korean activity and they were not directed at any one nation.
Similarly, officials said this year's war games are not connected in any way to world events or targetted at any country.
The US military also did not invite foreign observers to this year's drill, unlike last year when it hosted observers from 10 countries, including China, India, Japan and Australia.
The 2006 Valiant Shield drill marked the first time the US had invited a Chinese delegation to officially observe US maneuvers in the Pacific. Beijing sent a 10-member delegation headed by an admiral to watch.
Loughlin said hosting the observers was logistically costly, and commanders decided to limit foreign participation during this year's drill and focus on the training.
However, foreign media have been invited again.
Associated Press
Sunday, August 5, 2007 (Pearl Harbour)
http://www.ndtv.com/convergence/ndtv/story.aspx?id=NEWEN20070021509
--------------------------------
The US military expects to amass more than 22,000 troops off the coast of Guam starting on Tuesday for a weeklong exercise involving dozens of ships and hundreds of aircraft.
''The exercise demonstrates to our friends and allies in the Asia-Pacific ... how important the security of the region is to the United States,'' said Navy Captain Matt Loughlin, deputy chief of staff for Task Force 519, the Hawaii-based unit directing the drills.
Last year's exercises coincided with rising tensions over a possible test launch of a North Korean long-range missile, prompting two ships participating in the games to be assigned off the Korean coast to monitor the activity.
US military officials at the time stressed the exercises were not held in response to the North Korean activity and they were not directed at any one nation.
Similarly, officials said this year's war games are not connected in any way to world events or targetted at any country.
The US military also did not invite foreign observers to this year's drill, unlike last year when it hosted observers from 10 countries, including China, India, Japan and Australia.
The 2006 Valiant Shield drill marked the first time the US had invited a Chinese delegation to officially observe US maneuvers in the Pacific. Beijing sent a 10-member delegation headed by an admiral to watch.
Loughlin said hosting the observers was logistically costly, and commanders decided to limit foreign participation during this year's drill and focus on the training.
However, foreign media have been invited again.
Monday, July 16, 2007
The Great White Whale
Oceania: No War Games - 29 Jun 2007
White Whale forces Military Retreat in US-Australian War Games
english (original)
http://www.indymedia.org/en/2007/06/888289.shtml
--------------
Migaloo, the white humpback whale, is forcing the USA and Australian
military forces to reconsider using the Great Barrier reef for war games.
The USA and Australian Defence forces have faced down a civil disobedience
peace campaign against their Talisman Sabre War Games, from June 19 to
July 2, at Shoalwater Bay near Rockhampton, Queensland, Australia, only to
come up against the white whale!
Hundreds of people protested outside the restricted area near Rockhampton,
Queensland, with many attempting to enter the area, several actually
succeeding (Video) and evading capture for a number of days. (Audio
reports: 1, 2, 3) But still the military exercise continued, although
possibly in a slightly subdued form. Now the combined military forces are
facing another threat - a very rare and distinctive white humpback whale
by the name of Migaloo has been sighted heading towards the exercise area,
and the miltary are being forced to back off from endangering this
beautiful creature.
White Whale forces Military Retreat in US-Australian War Games
english (original)
http://www.indymedia.org/en/2007/06/888289.shtml
--------------
Migaloo, the white humpback whale, is forcing the USA and Australian
military forces to reconsider using the Great Barrier reef for war games.
The USA and Australian Defence forces have faced down a civil disobedience
peace campaign against their Talisman Sabre War Games, from June 19 to
July 2, at Shoalwater Bay near Rockhampton, Queensland, Australia, only to
come up against the white whale!
Hundreds of people protested outside the restricted area near Rockhampton,
Queensland, with many attempting to enter the area, several actually
succeeding (Video) and evading capture for a number of days. (Audio
reports: 1, 2, 3) But still the military exercise continued, although
possibly in a slightly subdued form. Now the combined military forces are
facing another threat - a very rare and distinctive white humpback whale
by the name of Migaloo has been sighted heading towards the exercise area,
and the miltary are being forced to back off from endangering this
beautiful creature.
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