Showing posts with label Fino' Militat. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fino' Militat. Show all posts

Sunday, June 28, 2009

House Bill May Complicate Things at Camp Schwab

Bill may complicate planned Camp Schwab airstrip
By Leo Shane III and David Allen
Stars and Stripes
Pacific edition, Sunday, June 28, 2009

The House version of the Fiscal 2010 Defense Authorization Bill could hamper plans to replace Marine Corps Air Station Futenma on Okinawa with a new airstrip on Camp Schwab.

Under the bill, the Defense Department "may not accept … a replacement facility in Okinawa (for Futenma) unless the Secretary certifies to the congressional defense committees that the replacement facility satisfies at least minimum Naval Aviation Safety requirements."

The language was prompted by concerns raised by Naval Air Systems Command about hazards surrounding the new airstrip location, including utility poles in the proposed flight path, a nearby school and the planned V-shaped runway into Oura Bay, said Dave Helfert, a spokesman for U.S. Rep. Neil Abercrombie, D-Hawaii, a member of the House Armed Services Committee.

The bill allows for safety improvements to be made at Camp Schwab to make it an acceptable replacement for Futenma, Helfert said.

The House approved its version of the authorization bill with the Futenma language Thursday, by a 389-22 vote.

However, the White House Office of Management and Budget issued a statement Thursday citing concern that the clause would "limit the Secretary’s authority to exercise reasonable judgment regarding airfield operations."

"The current FRF (Futenma Replacement Facility) configuration was agreed to during bilateral negotiations with the government of Japan, and this provision places the resulting International Agreement at risk," the office stated.

A Pentagon spokesman echoed the White House concerns.

"There have been public reports in the U.S. pertaining to safety issues with the Futenma replacement plan," the spokesman said Thursday.

"There are processes in place to address these concerns without making changes to the agreement itself. Moving a runway or reconfiguring a facility would be examples of major changes that the U.S. would not support."

Madeleine Z. Bordallo, the House delegate from Guam, said House Armed Services Committee chairman Ike Skelton, D-Mo., raised concerns about the design of the facility. But, she said, the language in the bill is not mean to scuttle the far-reaching realignment plans.

"The continued commitment to the military build-up on Guam is evident in the significant military construction funding for Guam in the bill," Bordallo said. "The issue of the Futenma Replacement Facility is a provision that the committee leadership will continue to address in conference committee with the Department of Defense."

Japanese officials Thursday said the clause flies in the face of a bilateral plan to replace the air station, close U.S. military bases south of Camp Foster, and to transfer some 8,000 Marines and their families to Guam in 2014.

The plan is part of a well-thought-out agreement made by both governments, said a spokeswoman for the Ministry of Defense.

"The plan was not made by a suggestion from one side, but it was a fruit of discussions and studies from various aspects by both governments," she said.

Japanese opposition parties and some Okinawa officials have serious concerns about the safety of the current plan. Okinawa Gov. Hirokazu Nakaima has demanded the runways be placed farther offshore.

The 2010 appropriations bill allots $934 million for defense projects on Guam for the coming year. That’s just the start of some $4 billion the U.S. plans to spend to build housing and other infrastructure for the move of Marines, including several major Marine commands now based on Okinawa.

The total cost of relocation has been budgeted at $10.27 billion, with Japan paying $6.07 billion, or 59 percent.

But replacing MCAS Futenma has always been a sticking point. The United States and Japan have been searching for a way to replace the air station ever since they signed an agreement in 1996 for the return of some 21 percent of the land on Okinawa used by the U.S. military.

A spokesman for Japan’s Ministry of Defense said he was aware of the clause in the authorization bill, but was hopeful the realignment plan would move forward as planned.

"It has been affirmed by Prime Minister Aso and President Obama that both countries would steadily carry out realignment plans according to the road map, which both governments agreed to in 2006, including facility relocation and closure of the Futenma air station facility," he said.

"Also, it is stipulated in a pact signed by both governments, an international promise, that both governments have an intention to complete the replacement facility," he said.

Stars and Stripes reporters Chiyomi Sumida and Jeff Schogol contributed to this report.

Sunday, June 07, 2009

US Commander Indicates Change in Japan Realignment

U.S. commander indicates change to planned force realignment in Japan
Jun 5 08:54 AM US/Eastern

WASHINGTON, June 5 (AP) - (Kyodo)—U.S. Marine Corps Commander Gen. James Conway on Thursday indicated a need to modify the plan to transfer U.S. Marines from Japan's Okinawa Prefecture to Guam by 2014.

"We have some modifications we think are worthy of consideration," he said in testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee, citing concerns about the concomitant relocation of facilities at the Marines' Futemma Air Station in the same prefecture.

"This Futemma replacement facility has to be indeed a fully capable replacement for what we're giving up on Okinawa," Conway said, adding, "We are concerned about training opportunities on Guam, in the nearby islands as well as the rest of the Asia-Pacific basin."

"So there are some things like that that we certainly want to see considered and negotiated as need be with the Japanese before we slap the table," he said.

The plan to move 8,000 Marines from Okinawa to Guam is part of an agreement struck between the United States and Japan in May 2006 to realign the U.S. military presence in Japan by 2014.

Relocating the Marines to Guam is closely tied to another key element of the agreement -- transferring the U.S. Marine Corps Futemma Air Station's heliport functions from downtown Ginowan to Nago, both in Okinawa.

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D98KI70G0&show_article=1

Tuesday, December 11, 2007

Expansion Planes Outlined for Military on Guam

Official outlines Guam expansion plans
By Teri Weaver, Stars and Stripes
Pacific edition, Tuesday, December 11, 2007

The Navy communications base at the northern end of Guam will be the new headquarters for 8,000 U.S. Marines headed for the island in coming years, according to the retired general in charge of directing the military expansion.

The base — Naval and Communications Station Guam — will eventually be home for much of the housing, administration and operations buildings for the III Marine Expeditionary Force, scheduled to move from Okinawa starting in 2012, according to retired Marine Maj. Gen. David Bice.

“We would expect the first elements could arrive in 2012,” said Bice, the executive director of the Joint Project Office. “The goal is to have the full operational ability in 2014.”

Bice was on the island last week to meet with local leaders and to narrow down a list of “preferred alternative” sites for the future homes, schools, training areas and other facilities needed for the nearly 40,000 new military personnel and family members planned for Guam.

The overall plan, still awaiting budget approval from Congress, includes the Marines from Okinawa as well as expanded Army and Navy units on the island.

Army officials also were on Guam last week to look for a future home for an air defense station, Bice said during a telephone interview.

It’s still uncertain whether the military can complete the total expansion within its existing footprint on the island, Bice said. The Marines’ training ground will likely be on “Anderson South” a part of Andersen Air Force Base on the northern end of Guam.

But other needs could fall outside current fence lines, he said.

“We’re still evaluating what, if any, additional functions that might not necessarily fit on DOD properties,” Bice said. “It’s kind of like a puzzle.”

For example, the military may need additional land to create more ranges, which require a buffer zone between the firing area and civilian property.

Military officials are also working to determine larger training sites throughout the Marianas, Bice said. Training areas on the nearby islands will support the Marines on Guam, but will also be training sites for troops from Okinawa, Alaska, Hawaii and other countries, Bice said.

Bice’s office will offer a draft master plan in March, followed by a working-level plan next summer.

The goal is to have engineering plans firm by February 2009, the beginning of budget planning for fiscal year 2010, he said.

Thursday, November 29, 2007

The Invasion of Guam

Minagahet Zine
Vol. 5 Iss. 5
10/27/07
"The Invasion of Guam"


Hafa Adai, yan welcome to i mina'trenta kuatro na Minagahet.

Last week I decided to try a different format for Minagahet, which would feature lists of articles grouped around issues relevant to things such as the military build up, the environment, federalization, and so on. The response I received was very positive and thankful. People know things are happening, and these things may or may not be something they can control or prevent. But, rarely for a variety of reasons, do they feel they have the time or the abilities to find out exactly what is happening, or what they can do about it. Bula na infotmasion manliliko' giya Guahan put i mamtan i militat, hayi mismo gaitiempo para u taitai yan komprende todu?

If for instance, you just read a single article on the economic re-energizing that Guam will be experiencing over the next few years, then you might think that the future will be incredible, sen ma'lak siempre! The business community is clearly working hard on this military increase. From just one article you'll get an image of business leaders meeting regularly at conferences and forums, where they are working on bringing in some of their business friends from around the world, all for the betterment of the people of Guam, so that everyone can benefit in fantastic ways from the military increases that are already being felt on the island. If, however, you read how many articles there are covering the business community's efforts to capitalize on the impending military increases, and how many business are moving into Guam to set up shop, you probably won't get an image of businesses working towards what's best for Guam, but rather an image of ferocious drunken vultures circling and swarming around the island, looking for any means to make some money. Members of the Chamber of Commerce, the US Congress and the Department of Interior have been traveling around the United States and the Pacific letting any and all know that "GUAM IS FOR SALE! and ready and willing to be plundered" To make this point very very clear, during one such conference in New Zealand, businesses there were encouraged to invade Guam.

As with the last issue, I am hoping again that if people find the things they read here disturbing or unsettling about the way Guam, Chamorros and others on Guam are being treated, they find productive ways to act upon their discomfort or anger. As you read this, Guam is being sold. It is first being sold as a place ideal for investors looking to make a quick buck or carpetbaggers looking for an eager and patriotic population to plunder. Second it is being sold off, the very future of the island is being handed over to people who are interested in making whatever money they can off the majority of Guam's population, and then fleeing one's the economic "excitement" is over. Third, Guam is being sold a complete pack of lies and half-truths as to how this military increase and the economic "boom" that is taking place now, will impact the island. Those in charge, elected or otherwise, of the island's economy, government and society, have decided for the most part to either celebrate these things in almost stupidly exuberant ways, or to simply go with the flow. It is up to those who see the future of our island in jeopardy, who see or can feel the numerous ways the island can be poisoned, the economy ruined, and our lives put at risk by these moves, to do something about it!

For more info, head over to these blogs, the JGPO Blog and the Decolonize Guam Blog. My other two blogs are still going strong. At No Rest for the Awake - Minagahet Chamorro, I posted recently about the relationship between "Guam, GITMO and Diego Garcia." And at Voicing Indigeneity, we recently uploaded a new podcast for the school year titled "The Indigenous View."

Sahuma Minagahet yan Na'suha Dinagi

Sahuma

ARTICLES

Hanom: articles about the water on Guam

"Navy's Fuligni Supports Decision to Raise Water Rates," by John Davis, KUAM, 10/18/07"
"Bring Fena to the Table," From the Marianas Variety, 10/10/07
"Simon Says Stop to Navy," by John Davis, KUAM, 10/10/07
"Water Rights in Guam," from Senator Ben Pangelinan, Famoksaiyan, 10/06/07
"Navy: Rate Hike Had to Be Done," by John Davis, KUAM, 10/4/07
"Navy Water Rate Hike Irks Senators," by Mar-Vic Cagurangan, The Marianas Variety, 9/28/07
"GWA Plans to Reduce Dependency on Navy Water," by John Davis, KUAM, 9/28/07
"Navy Will Nearly Double Water Rates for Southern Guam," by Jennifer H. Svan, Stars and Stripes, 9/27/07
"Navy Raises Fena Water Rate," by Gerardo R. Partido, The Marianas Variety, 9/26/07
"Mounting Losses Brought About Need to Raise Rates," by Mindy Fothergill, KUAM, 9/26/07
"CCU Prepared to Fight Navy If Water Rate Increases," by John Davis, KUAM, 9/18/07
"US Military Buildup Brings Tensions to Guam," from AP, The Honolulu Advertiser, 8/16/07
"Unpingco Hits Navy Fena Plan," by Gerardo R. Partido, The Marianas Variety, 8/16/07
"Navy May Increase Price of Water to GWA," by Clynt Ridgell, KUAM, 8/15/07

Hambiento: articles about the selling of Guam

"US Ambassador Wants Islands to Cash in on Guam Military Buildup," by Giff Johnson, Pacific Magazine, 10/25/07
"Guam Business Conference Best Ever," by Gerardo R. Partido, The Marianas Variety, 10/15/07
"China Eyes Business Ventures on Guam," by Gemma Q. Casas, The Marianas Variety, 10/09/07
"Business Opportunities Conference Will Cover All Bases," by Clynt Ridgell, KUAM, 10/07/07
"Pacific Businesses Head to Guam to Check Out US Dollars," 10/05/07
"Unlocking the Value of Real Estate in Micronesia," by David B. Cohen, The Saipan Tribune, 9/30/07
"Invest in the Pacific, US Tells Philippine Businesses," by Ma. Stella F. Arnaldo, Philippine News, 9/19/07
"Businesses Encouraged to Invade Guam," by Martin Tiffany, Waikato Times, 9/10/07
"Cohen to Address Real Estate Conference," by Gerardo R. Partido, The Marianas Variety, 9/07/07
"Forum Focuses on Military Buildup," by Jesse Leon Guerrero, NAVFAC, 8/30/07
"Guam Industry Forum Unites Industry Innovation with DOD Opportunity," by Kyra Hawn, NAVFAC, 8/28/07
"Guam Industry Forum Passes Valuable Lessons" by Clynt Ridgell, KUAM, 8/24/07
"Japan May Control Military Money," by Gerardo R. Partido, The Marianas Variety, 8/24/07
"Camacho Address Industry Forum," by Gerardo R. Partido, The Marianas Variety, 8/24/07
"Business Leaders, Lawmakers Converge on Guam," from the Associated Press, NBC KHNL, 8/23/07
"Gun Beach to Undergo Multimillion Commercial Development," by Mindy Fothergill, KUAM, 6/05/07
"Report Paints Bleak Picture of Guam's Financial Situation," by Clynt Ridgell, KUAM, 12/21/06

Fino' Okinawa: articles about the island where the 8,000 Marines are coming from

"Governor Rejects Defense Agency Environmental Assessment," from Japanupdate.com, 10/25/07
"Japanese City Opposes New Runway," from United Press International, 9/8/07
"Okinawa Does Not Need New US Military Bases," by , Manabu Sato, Asahi Shimbun, 9/07/07
"Tensions Mount as Prefecture Rejects Military Assessment Letter" from Japanupdate.com, 8/9/07
"Guam Welcomes Okinawa Delegation," by Mar-Vic Cagurangan, Marianas Variety, 7/12/07
"Okinawa Airfield Returned After 61 Years,'" by Takuya Okamoto, The Japan Times, 6/24/07
"Three Rapes: The Status of Forces Agreement and Okinawa," by Chalmers Johnson, Minagahet, 4/29/07
"Okinawans Oppose Missile Deployment," by David Allen and Chiyomi Sumida, Stars and Stripes, 7/01/06
"US Military Retreats Over Japanese Base After Protests," by David Mcneill, The Independent, 10/27/05
"US Agrees to Relocate Marines on Okinawa," by Anthony Faiola, The Washington Post, 10/27/05
"Okinawans Outraged at Crimes by Troops of 'Rogue Superpower America,'" by Karl Grobe, Frankfurter Rundshau, 7/13/00

Fino' Militat: articles about what the military plans for Guam

"Senators Frustrated with Military," by Gerardo R. Partido, The Marianas Variety, 10/11/07
"Tankers Fuel Tip of Spear," from The Pacific News Center, 10/07/07
"Bice on the Buildup," by Michael Lujan Bevacqua, No Rest for the Awake - Minagahet Chamorro, 9/26/07
"How Will They All Fit on Guam?," by Teri Weaver, Stars and Stripes, 9/25/07
"Guam Officials Need to Be Careful," by David Allen, Stars and Stripes, 7/15/07
"The Pentagon as Global Landlord," by Nick Turse, Tomdispatch.com, 7/11/07
"Marianas as one Big Military Camp," by Gerardo R. Partido, The Marianas Variety, 6/18/07
"Military Mulls Infrastructure," by Gaynor Dumat-ol Daleno, Pacific Daily News, 6/05/07
"From the Mouth of Fallon," by Michael Lujan Bevacqua, No Rest for the Awake - Minagahet Chamorro, 4/17/07
"Report Recommends US Military Buildup in the Pacific," by Gaynor Dumat-ol Daleno, Pacific Daily News, 4/13/07
"Air Force to Proceed with Strike Plan," by Mar-Vic Cagurangan, The Marianas Variety, 1/28/07
"Navy May Outsource Civilian Jobs,'" by Gerardo R Partido, The Marianas Variety, 10/21/06
"Pace Visits Guam to Assess Infrastructure Growth Plans,'" by Donna Miles, American Forces Press Service, 6/2/06
"New Military Era Rises in the Pacific," by Edward Cody, Washington Post, 10/03/05


Fino' i Maladjusted: articles by the "activists" of Guam

"Lemlem," by Michael Lujan Bevacqua, No Rest for the Awake - Minagahet Chamorro, 10/01/07
"Women's Group Demands Impact Study on Troop Buildup," from Fuetsan Famalao'an, 8/15/07
"US Obligation Unfulfilled," by Patty Garrido, The Marianas Variety, 8/14/07
"Better Poor Than Dead," by Vicente Ulloa Garrido, The Marianas Variety, 8/10/07
"On Wars and Numbers," by Julian Aguon, The Voice Project, 4/23/07
"Letter to Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo," from the Hawai'i - Okinawa Alliance, 4/23/07
"Topics on Decolonization," by Victoria Leon Guerrero, KUAM Extra, 1/03/07
"Back to Guahan," by Erica Nalani Benton, Famoksaiyan, 11/30/06
"Okinawa Move Requires Strong Leadership, Not Meek Stewardship," by Senator Jesse Lujan, The Marianas Variety, 6/20/06
"From a Native Daughter: For Peace, Human Rights and the Environment ," by Fanai Cruz Castro, Minagahet, 10/23/05
"Thinking About the US Military in Guam," by Antonio Artero Sablan, Minagahet, 1/07/05
"If a Tree Falls; If Colonization Occurs..." by Senator Hope A. Cristobal, Minagahet, 9/1/04
"There are Things Other Than Marines and War that are Worth Celebrated!" by Rita Lujan Butler, Minagahet, 6/17/04
"Guam: Natives Chamorros Decry US Military Increase," by Rufo Lujan, Colonized Chamoru Coalition, 4/23/04
"Guam; A Self-Sustaining Nation," by Angel Leon Guerrero Santos, Nasion Chamoru, 9/17/91
"Is Guam for Sale?" by Governor Ricardo Bordallo and Congressman Robert Underwood, /91.

Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Tip of the Spear

Check out this video titled "Tip of the Spear." I would embed it but unfortunately the maker doesn't allow that. Just click on the link above, to get a very inside view of the military on Guam.

Thursday, October 11, 2007

Senators Frustrated with US Military

Senators frustrated with military
Thursday, October 11, 2007
By Gerardo R. Partido
Variety News Staff

SENATORS yesterday expressed frustration with the military, and particularly at the lack of information about the coming buildup and the assistance to be given to the local community.

In discussing Bill 33, sponsored by Sen. Rory Respicio, D-Agana Heights, both Democratic and Republican senators expressed support for the creation of a panel to be called the “Commission on Community Support of the Military Mission on Guam.”

Saying that neither the Joint Guam Program Office nor the governor’s Civilian Military Task Force have shed much light on the military buildup, senators said the creation of the special panel is necessary to formulate a “team Guam approach” to strengthening relations between Guam and the federal government.

“All we’ve heard so far is what would be done inside the fence. We have heard scant details, if any, about what the military plans to do for the people of Guam,” said Sen. Jesse Lujan, R-Tamuning, who has been an outspoken critic of JGPO.

JGPO on Tuesday delivered a briefing at the Legislature for the senators but Lujan said nothing new was revealed about the community’s benefits.

“If anything, there was alarming news that Japanese labor and Japanese companies are now being considered for the buildup to the detriment of local workers and companies,” Lujan said.

“It is also only now that they are revealing that the proposed military highway would be accessible to civilians,” the senator added. Lujan had previously criticized JGPO for not disclosing details about the proposed military highway.

Sen. Tina Muna-Barnes, D-Mangilao, said the military seems to be sending conflicting messages to the people of Guam.

On the one hand, the military is assuring us that it will help the community cope with the buildup. “But they raised the water rates at Fena unilaterally. Now, we will be suffering with higher rates for using what is ours,” the senator lamented.

Sen. James Espaldon, R-Tamuning, who previously had reservations about Bill 33, now has had a change of heart.

“I previously had reservations about Bill 33 because I thought it would be unwise to change horses midstream. But with the amendment put up by Senator Blas to include the Civilian Military Task Force under the proposed commission, I’m now inclined to support the bill,” Espaldon said.

The bill proposes to create a 12-member panel that would develop “new initiatives to support the current military mission on Guam and foster its expansion.”

The commission, which Bill 33 proposes to create, would “help coordinate and support all aspects of government policy and private sector efforts in support of achieving the best results for all concerned.”

Respicio first filed the proposal to create the military commission in the 27th Legislature but it did not pass.

The senator’s attempt to get it on the floor in the 28th Legislature wasn’t successful either as Gov. Felix P. Camacho created the Civilian/Military Task Force to create a master plan for military expansion preparations and planning.

But Respicio sees no conflict with the administration, pointing out that the governor is included on the proposed commission.

The proposed commission would be composed of representatives from the governor’s office, the Guam Chamber of Commerce, the Guam Visitors Bureau, Chamorro rights groups, the Mayors Council, the Legislature, and the Guam Youth Congress.

Minority Leader Judith Won-Pat, D-Malojloj, is glad the youth sector is to be included in the proposed commission.

“Here we are talking about the future of Guam and making decisions when the future of Guam is really for the island’s youth,” the minority leader said.

Bill 33 has been placed in third reading and is expected to be voted upon this current session.

Friday, October 05, 2007

Army Unsure of its Guam Needs

Army unsure of its Guam needs
By Steve Limtiaco
Pacific Daily News
slimtiaco@guampdn.com
10/5/07

The military continues to flesh out its plans for expansion on Guam, including the transfer of 8,000 Marines and their dependents from Okinawa, but still missing from the equation is the U.S. Army, which has not stated what it will need to operate here.

The military has proposed creating an Army base on Guam to provide missile defense, with as many as 630 soldiers and their families.

"We don't have the information yet," said Navy Capt. Robert Lee, acting director of the Joint Guam Program Office, who yesterday gave an update on the "Guam Military Master Plan" to the governor's civilian military task force.

The final version of the master plan for Guam is scheduled to be complete by next summer, and Lee described yesterday's presentation to the civilian military task force as, "Our first stab at a master plan."
The hourlong presentation was held at the University of Guam's business college, and Lee said it was an opportunity for the local task force to participate in the planning process. The governor and lieutenant governor heard the same presentation last Friday.

"No conclusions have been made at this time," Lee said, but he outlined some of the concepts that will drive the military's plans, including the military's desire to keep all of its activities on or near bases. The Marines like to live where they work, he said.

The plans for Guam mean the different branches of the service will share bases, Lee said, and the goal is to keep family and bachelor housing close to the bases and "quality-of-life" facilities.

The bases will be designed to allow for future expansion, Lee said, and to prevent the type of encroachment that happened at the Marine Corps Air Station, Futenma, in Okinawa. The base, which is next to the city of Ginowan, has generated concerns about community safety and the noise from military activities.

A billion-dollar road linking military bases in northern and southern Guam also has been proposed, but Lee said plans for a road will not begin until at least one of the services says it needs a road for its operations here. In the meantime, information about Guam traffic patterns will be included as part of environmental impact studies, he said.

While the Army has not yet weighed in on the expansion plans, Maj. Gen. Donald Goldhorn, adjutant general of the Guam National Guard, said he met with the Army's Pacific commander last week to express concerns that the Army has been slow in stating its requirements on Guam.

Goldhorn, who is a task force member, said the logical location for an Army base on Guam is in Barrigada, next to the existing Guam Army National Guard headquarters. That way, the army, the army reserve and the national guard can share facilities, he said.

Goldhorn said army headquarters would be located in Barrigada, but its missile defense sites would be elsewhere on Guam, probably in the north and south.

For the most part, yesterday's update was consistent with the military development plan released by the U.S. Pacific Command in July 2006 -- land in Dededo continues to be the most viable location for the Marines, and Andersen Air Force base continues to be the most viable option for Marine Corps aircraft.

Lee showed the task force lists of locations for different types of activities, noting whether the sites are viable, potentially viable, or non-viable. Analysis of viable and potentially viable sites is ongoing, he said.

While the military has identified viable locations for most activities, it still has not found a viable location on military-held land for live-fire training, Lee said.

NCTS Finegayan is among the potential training sites, he said, but the military also is considering the use of non-military land.

"We're receiving inquiries from people about buying or leasing ... their land," he said.

Lee said it is not known whether the training sites will be attached to or apart from the military bases. "It's wide open right now. We don't know where to go yet," he said.

What is known is that there isn't a single location on Guam that will meet all of the military's training needs, Lee said, so the Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas also is being considered for training. "The CNMI is an active part of this whole process," he said.

Task force member Tony Lamorena, who is director of the Bureau of Statistics and Plans, expressed concerns that a military-related report being prepared for Guam by a federally funded consultant appears to be written from the military's perspective, and not the perspective of the people of Guam.

Lamorena said the draft white paper by consultant KPMG is critical of the island's water and power agencies and its port, stating that they fail to meet the military's requirements.

Lamorena said the report instead should identity the community's needs and how those needs might be adversely affected by the military buildup.

Thursday, October 04, 2007

Navy: Rate Hike Had to Be Done

Navy: rate hike had to be done
by John Davis,
KUAM News
Thursday, October 04, 2007

Despite an outpouring of opposition to increased water rates from the production of water from the Fena Reservoir, the Navy today announced the completion of a $19 million upgrade to the treatment plant. Upgrades to the 51-year-old Fena Water Treatment Plant in Santa Rita will reduce chlorinated organics, lead and copper in water and improve plant performance by providing a redundant treatment unit.

This means if one treatment unit were to go down during a typhoon or heavy rains like today's, the Navy would be able to take a unit down without impacting treatment, even during power outages. Water from the Fena Reservoir has been at the center of discontent with local government officials and the military after the Navy decided to double the amount it charges the Guam Waterworks Authority for water produced at the plant.

While many residents feel an increase to water rates from the federal government is not warranted, Navy spokesperson Lieutenant Donnell Evans says the general misconception of operations, maintenance and production being federally funded must be cleared up. He says there were two separate sources of funding for the upgrades. The military construction part of the upgrade is funded through Congress, while operating costs for the treatment plant come from somewhere else. Lt. Evans pinpointed this as being "directly from the revenues generated from the customers."

Evans does confirm that the Navy will also be using revenue generated from the 100% increase to pay off prior year losses, he does say however that once the Navy has collected money lost over the last several years, there could be a chance for rate relief. "There may be some decreases or we may have to adjust the actual cost structure from the plant based on inflation and based on being able to recover some past year losses," the officer explained. "That is definitely something we can consider."

And for the many residents against rate increases from the Navy because they feel it plays a part in the massive military relocation of military personnel and feel the Navy should foot the bill, Evans says the increase in the water rates have nothing to do with the 8,000 U.S. Marines and their families who will be calling Guam home within the next five to ten years. He adds that the increase is strictly related to the past and current operating costs for the water treatment plant, explaining, "We clearly understand that there is opposition to this increase and it's an emotional issue, but we understand that. But it doesn't rally change the fact that it cost money to operate the water treatment plant...we are stewards of government resources and as stewards of resources, we have to make sure that we don't operate this plant at a loss."

Operating costs aside, members of the Consolidated Commission on Utilities maintain that Navy water should still be cheaper than GWA water because the Navy does not take out loans for upgrades, have debt service responsibilities and their capitol improvement projects are federally funded. CCU chairman Simon Sanchez even suggested that the utility agency handle the operations of the water treatment plant, since there is a possibility it would cost them less.

Tuesday, October 02, 2007

Marine move to Guam may be Jeopardized

Lack of funding, room jeopardize Guam buildup
By Michael Hoffman - Staff writer
Posted : Sunday Sep 30, 2007 9:30:13 EDT
Marine Corps Times

More than 60 years after leathernecks liberated Guam during World War II, plans for a second invasion of 8,000 Marines and 9,000 dependents from Okinawa, Japan, scheduled for 2014, are falling behind as uncertainties with funding the transfer and finding enough room on the tiny Pacific island risk dooming the project altogether.

Issues have arisen with getting Congress and the Japanese government to approve funding for the estimated $10.3 billion military buildup, which also includes constructing an Army ballistic missile defense station and a new Navy pier capable of berthing a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, according to retired Marine Maj. Gen. David Bice, the director of the Joint Guam Program Office, and a recent report by the Government Accountability Office.

The Japanese government has agreed to fund $6.1 billion of the $10.3 billion price tag for the Marine move, but Bice said he is still worried that the Guam project could be passed over for other priorities in the Middle East.

“We recognize that Congress and the [Defense Department] is always going to be challenged for funding,” he said. “Our program is going to have to be fully justified.”

His office missed a December 2006 deadline to submit a master plan for the buildup to the Senate Appropriations Committee, but Bice said his office isn’t planning to issue one until February 2009, so funding will be included in the fiscal 2010 military budget and construction can start by summer 2010.

While the transfer of Marines is still seven years off and the units that will be sent to Guam may still change, the units identified for relocation from Okinawa include the command element for III Marine Expeditionary Force; the headquarters for 3rd Marine Division, 3rd Marine Logistics Group and 1st Marine Aircraft Wing; and 12th Marines, according to the GAO report.

By all accounts there is a lot of work ahead to upgrade Guam’s infrastructure and construct enough houses and military buildings to prepare for the 39,310 service members and dependents that will make up the buildup.

“There will be impacts on the infrastructure and we are working to respond to that growth,” said Shawn Gumataotao, spokesman for Guam Gov. Felix Camacho.

The GAO report described the two major roads in Guam as in “poor condition” and pointed out that the lack of roadways forces the Air Force to transport ordnance through highly populated areas to its depots.

The electric grid is also unreliable and the utility transmission lines are antiquated, according to the report. The solid-waste landfills are near capacity and the “waste-water treatment facilities have a long history of failing” and are also near capacity, the GAO reported.

Construction has been going on for the last couple years on Guam to update these faults, Gumataotao said. About $500 million has already been invested for projects to shore up roads, install power lines underground, and improve the handling of wastewater, he said.

Questions also surround how all the new Marines will be housed and how a high quality of life will be maintained on the remote island. Bice said the Japanese government plans to build 3,250 homes on base, and the governor’s office confirmed that housing developers on the island are working to build more off-base housing.

While the island can be a lonely place for service members, Bice is confident that the efforts made by his office and Guam officials will make it an attractive station.

“It’s going to be the new Oahu because it’s going to be a place people want to go,” he said.

The lack of infrastructure is fixable, but no study or congressional funding bill will create more space on the island, which is roughly the size of Camp Pendleton, Calif.

The Defense Department owns 40,000 acres of land on Guam, equal to 29 percent of the island, where 14,195 service members work, according to the Guam Integrated Military Development Plan.

DoD officials originally promised they could accomplish the buildup without obtaining more land, but Bice said his staff has reviewed the possibility of purchasing real estate from private landowners who have come forward and offered to sell.

But “there are political sensitivities to using former DoD land areas, since local community officials in Guam are concerned with the community’s reaction to DoD’s possible expansion of land holdings on the island,” the GAO reported.

While there is a minority on the island that is opposed to the buildup, Gumataotao said 70 percent of Guam residents polled do support it and are excited about the economic development it could provide.

Military planners might not be as excited when it comes to ensuring Marines meet training requirements.

“Training is going to be an issue on Guam,” said Bice, who once commanded 3rd Marine Division. Instead of staying on the island, Marines will have to travel to islands about 90 miles away to complete training exercises, Bice said.

Sunday, September 23, 2007

GAO Report

JGPO official felt federal report was fair
by Sabrina Salas Matanane, KUAM News
Sunday, September 23, 2007


The head of the Forward Joint Guam Program Office, Captain Robert Lee, feels the General Accountability Office report was a thorough review of the process to inform the community of the goings-on of moving troops from Okinawa thus far. "If you look at the report," said the naval officer, "It did a good investigation of everything's that's happening today, and then they suggested a few things comments needs to report more to Congress. Well, if you look into the actual paragraph it just stated that we understand there's not a lot done yet, the planning is just beginning, but they suggest that as we get information we do communicate more with Congress."

In terms of his response to KUAM's report on the critically endangered Okinawan Dugong and litigation that was filed in a federal court in California against defense secretary Robert Gates, Cpt. Lee said he was not aware of the specifics of the lawsuit. As we reported, several conservation groups are suing the defense secretary for violating the National Historic Preservation Act, which protects the dugongs. The prime habitat in which they live is located where the Futenma Replacement Facility is to be constructed.

According to the GAO report, any delays with the replacement facility in Okinawa could delay the relocation of U.S. Marines to Guam. Said Lee, "In general there are things that have to happen in Okinawa for this move to happen here on Guam and the Futenma Replacement Facility. That's one of the keys that has to happen in Okinawa, to make sure the rest of this move goes in place. If you look at domino effect, there are certain things that have to happen on both sides of the fence here - as one starts to fall in Japan then one starts to fall on Guam, and we just kind of go in order, but it's tied-in.

"I mentioned before that it's a $10 billion move here; it's $30 billion in Japan, and they're all tied into each other and with all this money and all this movement. Remember, there's one base over here and you're talking five or six bases in Japan. There's a lot of interaction and we're working closely in federal government levels and military levels to make sure we stay in synch."

Wednesday, August 29, 2007

Trust, But Verify

Trust, but verify
By Ben Pangelinan
For Variety
August 28, 2007

You may recall that in 1987, former President Ronald Reagan, citing an old Russian proverb, told Soviet Premier Mikhail Gorbachev that the foundation for the new U.S.-Soviet relationship surrounding arms control would be “trust, but verify” (doveryay, no proveryay).

IN ending the cold war between the United States and Russia and the implementation of the agreements to end the war, President Reagan uttered these unforgettable words. The words were used to encapsulate the simple doctrine for the disarmament of the weapons of mass destruction in the arsenal of each country.

This is exactly why it is important that we attend every meeting and briefing that is being conducted with regards to the impending military buildup on Guam. It gives us the opportunity to establish trust between each other and begin to verify the information.

I must say that there is a long road yet to be traveled before I can trust that the process will in fact protect the people as well as the island. To illustrate my point, I attended the earliest of town hall meetings on the plans for military buildup even before I was elected to my current term. In one meeting, the general conducting the meeting stated that there would be no live ammunition training done on Guam. I attended a second meeting and the same general, upon closer questioning, stated that there will be limited live small arms training and that they may have to close off or restrict fishing in certain northern coastal areas due to live ammunition training.

Later, in a report I found detailing the buildup plans, it stated live ammunition training is being planned not only for the northern area, but is being considered for Naval Magazine. It doesn’t sound right to me, but then again I am not an expert. I fully intend to verify with those in the know.

Another interesting comment I heard was from Undersecretary of Defense BJ Penn at the industry forum. In a moment of levity, Mr. Penn, when discussing the military’s commitment to environmental integrity of the whole buildup, stated that he really is sincere to doing things the right way because he does not want to be sued. As a matter of fact, he was sued three times even before he was sworn in to his current job. I trust that he is sincere in his statements and that they will follow all environmental laws, rules and regulations.

But feeling the need to verify this statement, I find that, in fact, lawsuits have been filed against the military in their expansion activities in other locations. The courts have found the military short in their adherence to environmental laws and regulations. Some lawsuits are still in the courts because of the insistence that the military must have it their way.

The military planners continue to assure us that the buildup will result in partnerships between the local government and the military. They ask us to trust them and that it is their intention to help us make these partnerships work. Then, we find more information that verify the existence of the “special purpose entities” that will be formed to ensure the Japanese government takes care of its own companies and the military will get what it needs.

Curiously, there is one infrastructure project that the military is absolutely clear on. They want to partner with the local government on the landfill. They want the people of Guam to build a landfill on our side of the fence. They will happily truck their trash from their side of the fence to our side of the fence. And dump it in our backyard.

Trusted, busted and verified.

Way to go partner.

*****************

Ben Pangelinan is a senator in the 29th Guam Legislature and a former
speaker now serving his seventh term in the Guam Legislature.
E-mail comments or suggestions to senbenp@guam.net or ctzenben@ite.net.

Monday, June 18, 2007

Marianas Will Be One Big Military Camp

Marianas as one big military camp
By Gerardo R. Partido
Variety News Staff
18 June 07
------------------

THE public scoping meetings scheduled to be held on Guam and the CNMI this week may be more important than the ones recently completed for the Marines' relocation plan.

The draft environmental impact statement, or EIS, for the proposed Mariana Islands Range Complex is regional in scope, affecting not only Guam but also Saipan and Tinian.

It also involves not just an increase in military personnel but also an increase in the number and type of training operations such as underwater mine warfare, antisubmarine warfare, and other underwater training that could have an impact on the environment.

The U.S. military has long been using the Marianas as a training range but not in the scope that is being proposed now which is why the military is holding public scoping meetings to draw up a new EIS that would supplant the Marianas Training Plan EIS drawn in 1999.

Moreover, the proposed action not just revolves on training activities but actually goes beyond training and also focuses on the "research, development, testing and evaluation of systems, weapons and platforms."

One such new weapon and platform is the future proposed Littoral Combat Ship which is the first of the U.S. Navy's next-generation surface combatant ships.

The concept behind the Littoral Combat Ship as described by the Navy is to create a small, fast, maneuverable and relatively inexpensive ship that can be easily reconfigured for multiple roles.

These roles include anti-submarine warfare, mine countermeasures, anti-surface warfare, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, homeland defense, maritime intercept, special operations, and logistics functions that can be launched from Guam during times of conflict in the region.

Both the Guam and CNMI economies are expected to benefit from the expansion of the militar's activities in the Mariana Islands Range Complex as the military also wants to upgrade and modernize ranges and training areas, including new small arms and mortar ranges, Military Operations on Urban Terrain, and a new mortar range and other live-fire ranges on Tinian as well as more capable fixed underwater training ranges.

According to the military, the facilities of the Mariana Islands Range Complex are unique because of their location in the western Pacific where deployed U.S. forces can maintain their war fighting proficiencies.

This range complex is also in proximity to forward deployed U.S. naval forces that also need to maintain their war fighting proficiency."The range complex provides U.S. forces with a wide range of training opportunities involving varying degrees of complexity and diversity, which enhances the training benefit," a backgrounder provided by the military said.

To keep up with advances in technology and new security challenges, the military said the various U.S. Services including the U.S. Coast Guard, Army, Navy, Marine Corps, and Air Force occasionally need to change their operations, including the way they test weapons and train service personnel.

Before making any changes, the military said it is vital to ensure that the changes will not harm the environment of the Marianas, including the land and sea animals and plants; natural resources; cultural sites and artifacts; and the economic well-being and quality of life of the Marianas people.

Thus, the need for an Environmental Impact Statement/Overseas Environmental Impact Statement, or EIS/OEIS, that would study current and future training activities in the Mariana Islands Range Complex.

The first public scoping meeting for this EIS will be held at the Guam Hilton today from 5 p.m. to 8 p.m. Subsequent meetings will be held at the Hyatt Regency Saipan on Wednesday and the Tinian Dynasty Hotel on Thursday.

The scoping meetings have two main objectives: to inform the public about the Defense Representative’s Proposed Action and to obtain written comments on environmental issues to be addressed in the EIS/OEIS.

The U.S. Defense Representative is accepting comments throughout the 45-day comment period, from June 1, 2007 to July 16, 2007.

According to DoD, there may be some overlap between the Mariana Islands Range Complex EIS/OEISs and the EIS being prepared for the relocation of the Okinawa Marines.

But DoD said the preparation of these documents between the Commander Pacific Fleet and the Joint Guam Program Office will be closely coordinated to ensure consistency.

Secret Military Memo

1945 secret memo reveals US real intention for Guam
By Mar-Vic Cagurangan
Variety News Staff
June 19, 2007

IF THE U.S. government is making military decisions based on its post-war policy for Guam, then the civilian population might not expect too much help from the federal government when 8,000 Marines arrive from Okinawa because the island’s economic development was the least of its concern.

In a secret memo issued on Nov. 21, 1945, Vice Adm. G.D. Murray, then commander of the Marianas Navy Force, stated that “the economic development and administration of relatively few native inhabitants should be subordinate to the real purpose for which those islands are held.”

“Military control of these islands is essential as their military value far outweighs their economic value,” Murray stated in the three-page memo that recommended the Navy’s control of Guam and other western Pacific islands, including American Samoa.

While recognizing Guam’s strategic importance, Murray said the island’s commercial or industrial value and its resources were “of little or no relative importance to the welfare of the United States.”

“From the military stand point,” Murray said, “a contented healthy and loyal native population contributes a strong link in the strength of those lands as bases.”
Murray described the island natives as “simple people, requiring few of our modern luxuries for their welfare and happiness.”

“The characteristics and nature of the majority of inhabitants on these islands are such that the artificial or forced raising of their standard of living to one approaching that of the United States would be detrimental to their best interest and would contribute little to the safety and welfare of the United States,” Murray said.

The U.S. military government on Guam began on June 21, 1898, with the surrender of Spanish troops. By virtue of the Treaty of Peace signed in Paris on Dec. 10, 1898, Spain ceded Guam, along with the Philippines and Puerto Rico, to the U.S.
Guam was invaded by Japan in 1941, and recaptured by the U.S. on July 21, 1944, which is yearly celebrated on island as “Liberation Day.”

Guam’s strategic location, long recognized by the military, remains to be valuable to the U.S. defense system, hence the unabated military expansion on island.

The business sector welcomes the military buildup, which is touted to generate a construction boom, spur business activities and generate thousands of jobs.
With limited infrastructure on Guam, however, local leaders acknowledge that the island is not prepared to accommodate the influx of population that will be transferred from Okinawa.

Local leaders have not received assurance of federal assistance to aid the civilian population with the need for infrastructure developments and increased supply of water and power.

The 2008 Military Construction and Veterans Affairs Appropriations Act passed by the House of Representatives last week appropriates $345 million only for military construction projects that would accommodate the needs of military personnel stationed on Guam.

The 2008 construction budget only covers projects within the Navy base such as the Kilo Wharf extension, the improvement of security of electrical systems, housing and fitness for Navy personnel, upgrade of the Naval Base Guam wastewater treatment plant, and infrastructure development at Northwest Field.

But just the same, Congresswoman Madeleine Bordallo expects the military construction activities to “go a long way in stimulating our economy and new tax revenues from these federal projects will be a significant help to our island once the projects are undertaken.”

Saturday, March 11, 2006

Guam Seen as Pivotal US Base

Guam seen as pivotal U.S. base
Originally published 11:07 p.m., March 10, 2006
Richard Halloran
The Washington Times

ANDERSEN AIR FORCE BASE, Guam -- The U.S. Pacific Command is moving forward with plans to recast the posture of its military forces in the western Pacific and Asia with the new pivot point to be a robust base on the island of Guam.

"Look at a map," said the command's leader, Adm. William J. Fallon, as he flew toward Guam after a weeklong trek through Southeast Asia. He pointed to the relatively short distances from Guam to South Korea; the Taiwan Strait, across which China and Taiwan confront each other; and Southeast Asia, the frontier of terror in Asia.

U.S. officers often talk about the "tyranny of distance" in the Pacific Command's area of operations, which runs from the west coast of North America to the east coast of Africa. Guam, when it is fully operational, will provide a base for land, naval and air forces closer to targets than for forces on the U.S. mainland or Hawaii. Guam was a major air base during the war in Vietnam.

A genuine advantage, Adm. Fallon said, is that "Guam is American territory." The island does not have the political restrictions, such as those in South Korea, that could impede U.S. military moves in an emergency. South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun, who repeatedly has taken an anti-American stance, has suggested that U.S. forces could not be deployed from his nation without his government's approval.

In an interview on his airplane and in congressional testimony this week, the admiral emphasized the vital role that Japan would continue to play in U.S. strategy.

"The U.S.-Japan alliance remains the most important pact in the Pacific," he said. Even so, depending on what sort of government is in power in Tokyo, political complications could arise in deploying forces elsewhere from Japan.

The disadvantage of Guam is the run-down state of the island's infrastructure. The roads, the electrical system, the water supply, piers and airfield runways are in disrepair.

"I want that infrastructure fixed," Adm. Fallon said. One runway at Andersen Air Force Base already has been demolished for rebuilding. Guam also is vulnerable to typhoons and should have its power lines buried, Adm. Fallon said.

Adm. Fallon said he saw the island as primarily a staging area through which troops, ships and planes would surge toward contingencies in Asia. The island's maintenance and repair capacity would be refurbished and expanded so that, for instance, aircraft carriers could be serviced without having to return to home ports on the West Coast.

What this will cost and whether Congress will provide sufficient funds has not been determined.

About 7,000 Marines, including the headquarters of the III Marine Expeditionary Force, would go to Guam from the Japanese island of Okinawa, where friction between Marines and Okinawans has been constant. Three fast-attack submarines are based at Guam, and two more will be assigned there. Squadrons of B-1 bombers are rotated through Guam from the United States for several months at a time.

On realigning U.S. forces in Japan, American and Japanese officials have been putting the finishing touches on an agreement to be completed by the end of this month. It is to include a new U.S. Army headquarters alongside a Japanese Ground Self-Defense Force headquarters at Camp Zama, southwest of Tokyo, and a similar arrangement for air force units at Yokota Air Base, west of Tokyo.

Japan has agreed that the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier George Washington will replace the Kitty Hawk, driven by conventional steam turbines, in Yokosuka when it is retired in 2008.

Throughout the discussion of his vision for positioning forces in the Asia-Pacific region, Adm. Fallon emphasized "flexibility."

"We need to have forces ready to react," he said. "We must have built-in flexibility" to meet emergencies, including disaster relief and other humanitarian operations.

He underscored that he flew by helicopter from Clark Field north of Manila in the Philippines to the amphibious assault ship Essex at sea to thank the Marines and sailors aboard for their efforts in trying to rescue victims of the giant mudslide on the island of Leyte.

"You responded magnificently with great speed, agility, demonstrating flexibility in shifting your priority focus," he told those assembled on the flight deck. They had started an exercise in the Philippines before taking on the relief work.

In congressional testimony, Adm. Fallon expanded on that theme: "Forward deployed forces, ready for immediate employment, send an unambiguous signal of undiminished U.S. commitment to the Asia-Pacific area. Agile and responsive global forces also act to deter aggression."

Friday, November 18, 2005

US more cautious than wary as China's reach grows

US more cautious than wary as China's reach grows
By Robert Marquand
Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor
11/18/05

ANDERSEN AIR BASE, GUAM - This 30-mile-long volcanic island appears on a map like stray bit of tropical spackling flung out in the Pacific. Honolulu is eight hours east, Tokyo four hours north, Hong Kong and Jakarta four hours west and south. The rest is ocean.

Guam has been a sleepy supply depot for decades. But it is now becoming known as the "tip of the spear" of US Pacific forces. This US territorial outpost no longer means just "fuel and ammo" but "subs and bombers" as well.

Some officers say Guam's new priority is a result of diverse missions in the Pacific, like tsunami relief. But most agree it has its source in the "unknowns" in East Asia - code language for Pentagon concerns about the rise of China - with its claims on Taiwan and rivalry with Japan - and a region with friction over oil rights, North Korea.

"[Guam] hasn't had a continuous bomber presence since Vietnam," says Lt. Col. Hans Lageschulte, a flight operations officer here. "But things changed two years ago."

At that time, about 12,000 military aircraft were landing on the longest runway in the Pacific. Last year, that figure was 26,000. Bulldozers are flattening earth for a second parallel runway. Parked wing to wing on Andersen's tarmac are seven B-1B Lancer bombers with names like "Night Hawk" and "Live Free or Die." Their gray swept-back forms now carry JDAMs, or guided munitions. Each plane carries the payload of three B-52 bombers. [ Editor's note: The original version mischaracterized the B-52 bomber.]

"We [US forces] are developing an ops [operations] mentality in the Pacific," says David Crockett, as he stands inside a B1 cockpit loaded with upgrades. A B1 squad leader who wears titanium Armani glasses, Colonel Crockett is a veteran of Kosovo and Afghanistan. "We are training more and staying out longer."

China's military is beginning to show signs of serious capability, as it rises and spends in tandem with its new-wealth economy (see Part 1, Nov. 17). As China's submarines and destroyers begin to navigate the Pacific Ocean currents, US forces in Asia are becoming more robust and watchful - even as the Pentagon seeks better ties with the PLA.

The PLA has reformed 15 percent of itself into a core modern force capable of giving the US trouble around Taiwan. It has newly effective cruise missiles, three new classes of submarines, and a significant new defense industrial base from which to develop advanced weapons.

China lags behind the US in areas like stealth technology and the ability to project power
But this does not mean China now has a state-of-the-art Army, nor that China is on the verge of Pacific military parity with the US. To take one example, the PLA currently can "lift" or move only one division, about 15,000 personnel. It has no carrier force. In fact, there are so many wide gaps between China and the US - from stealth technology to "battlefield vision" - that some experts say China lags 20 years behind in the area of purely military matchups.

In the past year, however, a dawning realization of new Chinese military capability has been so surprising that many analysts warn of overcompensating, and of attributing to China far more threat than there is. They point to fearful commentary about Chinese ambitions and warmaking ability that is largely based on lists of Chinese hardware - planes, missiles, tanks, subs. Yet few serious military planners feel such lists are a genuine method of assessing military prowess. As one Pentagon source noted, quoting an old CIA joke, "no one ever lost their job here by analyzing a threat."

"To predict anything with certainty about the PLA or its intent is really irresponsible," says a senior US expert on China's military. "I don't think the PLA knows which way it is headed. I think there are just too many question marks."

"I view China as a challenge, I would like to put it that way," says Guam's air commander, Col. Michael Boera. "I don't yet know if they are a problem."

Problems for China: sustaining an attack on Taiwan and a US 'revolution in military force'
In interviews in Hawaii, Guam, Taiwan, and Tokyo, generals and pilots, analysts and experts offered two fundamental points about China and the US in Asia. First, while China has turned its 1970s-era military technology into late 1980s-era technology, it is still 1980s-early-90s technology, and remains untested in combat conditions. China's high-tech training of officers and enlisted personnel is still considered very modest.

Moreover, while China is creating the kind of high-tech battle force that will allow its ships, planes, missiles, and operations centers to coordinate with precision and speed, it does not yet have this hard-earned capability. Nor does it have advanced satellites and AWACS-enhanced battlefield vision (though China is purchasing up to four AWACS-type Russian A-50 planes.)

In the short term, China faces two real problems. One, in the most serious and potentially catastrophic scenario - a PLA attack on Taiwan - it is far from clear that China can sustain an attack, once it meets advanced resistance.

Second, US Pacific forces are not sitting dormant. China, for example, may be reforming, but it has not undergone the kind of "revolution in military affairs" that US forces have in the past decade. Moreover, should it come to a serious dustup in the Pacific, China might be required to face both US and Japanese forces. Japan has state-of-the-art systems that are mostly compatible with US systems.

From atop the slender control tower here at Anderson, with its "Prepared to Prevail" inscription, officers are busy managing a live example of how US forces are adapting. Aircraft from three military branches work together: Ke-135 bomber refuelers, B-52s, Navy P-3s, and Navy H860 helicopters. A set of stealthy B2 bombers was here last week, and Marine F-18 jets arrive next week. Lumbering C-17s buzz around like oversize bumblebees.

This is a composite picture of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld's idea of "interoperability" - where military branches act in concert. The concept will be further enhanced this month when a new "Kenney War Fighting Center" starts up in Honolulu. The center will oversee a rapid-response Air Force team throughout the Pacific. Here in Guam, the Kenney center will deploy three sophisticated "Global Hawk" unmanned reconnaissance planes. Global Hawk replaces the U-2 spy plane, and will fly reconnaissance missions of 24 hours or more at 54,000 feet above the 100 million square miles and along the 43 countries that make up the Pacific command region.

"Flexibility, speed, quick response ... is what we seek," says Lt. Col. Jason Salata of Pacific Command.

Last summer, US and Japanese planes conducted joint bombing runs off Guam - the first time Japanese planes dropped munitions here since WW II.

Guam's downside is vulnerability to what is called a "single point failure." That is, many assets could be wiped out in a single event, like an earthquake or a hostile submarine with tactical nuclear weapons. Pearl Harbor on Dec. 7, 1941, was nearly a "single point failure."

One gap between China's military aims and its actual ability is the officer corps. China is developing a high-tech army. Yet it is unclear whether enough high-tech officers are available. A colonel in the PLA makes about $500 a month, less than the salary of many office clerks in Beijing's joint-venture firms. One Western expert who has spent time at PLA schools says that while China may be purchasing a modern army, it is not clear that enough officers are "modern in their heads ... a lot of them are still fairly local. They like hanging out in karaoke bars and don't want a lot of trouble."

Andrew Yang, one of Taiwan's foremost military experts, says that on a trip to Beijing this summer, he felt the PLA "officers are not at a high level, and they are still losing talent to the private sector."

One sharp critic of a "Chicken Little attitude" about China is analyst Richard Bitzinger, now at the Asia-Pacific Center for Strategic Studies. Mr. Bitzinger argues that precise appraisals of the PLA are nearly impossible, since the Chinese do not share much information. He argues that many China hawks substitute their own fears for what they don't know about China's capability. Yet he says it is possible to use common sense in taking some basic appraisals of the PLA.

To quickly become the dominant power in Asia, China would have to sharply increase its military budget
For example, he says, for China to develop quickly into the dominant military power in Asia would require PLA commanders to focus on every area at the same time - research, training, weapons manufacture, deployment, and the creation of high-tech communications that even US forces find daunting. Such a full-out buildup would require China to even more sharply increase its already whopping budget.

"The problem for the PLA goes to the old saying, 'You can't make everything a priority,' " Bitzinger says. "They can't upgrade at all the levels needed and still spend only 3 percent at most of GDP."

Moreover, for PLA generals to simply go on a shopping spree and obtain cutting-edge aerospace, boats, and missiles, doesn't necessarily mean much, Bitzinger argues. Modern militaries require "sweating the details" to make very unusual and hard-to-duplicate military systems and subsystems work. This takes years.

"You can't just go out, buy stuff, and expect to plug and play [sophisticated hardware]," Bitzinger says. "I blame Star Trek for these assumptions," he adds, "where Captain Kirk and Spock can build anything out of nothing. You may want an Aegis system, but you can't buy it off the shelf.

"We see a smooth plating on China's new 053 destroyer that looks like our Aegis system," Bitzinger says, "and some military analysts decide China does have an Aegis. But that assumes too much, in my view."

Many PLA watchers say that despite China's modernization, many critical details are not addressed. For example, relations between the Chinese Army and Navy have long been so bitter that they sometimes don't speak to each other. While Chinese pilots now get a standard 200 hours training, that training is not advanced.

In a Taiwan scenario, too, the battle China has been planning for, there are many unsolved problems. Military commanders who have "war gamed" Taiwan point out that an invasion force of at least 250,000 to 300,000 is required. Yet China can't deliver that many men to Taiwan's shores in a first assault.

While China may be able to bloody the US Navy if it comes close to China's shores, the US Navy no longer employs this tactic in a Taiwan scenario, analysts say. One active Japanese army general who has war-gamed Taiwan many times says that China has only bad outcomes at present. If China tries to sink US ships with waves of aircraft, it will probably lose much of its Air Force, he states: "As a military planner you have to live to fight another day.... I have done the gaming many times from the Chinese side, and I've never won. My worst nightmare job is to be the Chinese operational planner for a Taiwan invasion. I have questioned whether China would sink a single US ship."

Beijing can now potentially sink an aircraft carrier that gets too close to the Taiwan strait. But so far its cruise missiles, which are similar to the US Harpoon or French Exocet, are still 1970s vintage. These missiles can hit a ship. But more than 40 navies in the world use this type of weapon, and US ships are practiced in countermeasures.

"People talk about Chinese cruise missiles as if one missile could stop the US Navy," says Bitzinger. "I really question that. For starters there are countermeasures. In a real scenario, the Navy isn't sitting on its hands."

Missiles aimed at Taiwan are not a decisive military threat
Then there are those 600-800 Chinese missiles aimed at Taiwan from Fujian province in China. US commanders, Taiwanese politicians, and journalists often describe these missiles as if they are a decisive military threat. In fact, they are more likely symbolic. As a munitions expert told the Monitor, 700 missiles is "nothing. For a military attack that is supposed to incapacitate and paralyze a country, it is not impressive."

Each missile carries about a half-ton of explosive. Some 1,000 of them represent 500 tons. That amount is smaller than US forces dropped on Tokyo in two days, March 9-10, 1945, in an early futile effort to get Japan to surrender.

In an eerily prescient PLA book that came out before Sept. 11, 2001, two PLA officers argue that many future conflicts would be organized around "asymmetric warfare," also called "assassin's mace." The tactic itself sounds unsettling, based on deception and trickery. Yet some US strategists point out that military tactics from the Trojan Horse to Pearl Harbor have relied on surprise and hitting the enemy in vulnerable places. One said, "I think maybe only the British in the 19th century deigned not to attack in a vulnerable or dishonorable place. Everyone else has and does, and plans for it. I don't think China has a corner on that market.

Unfortunately, many assessments about China's military can only be proven in war. Such an event would probably be catastrophic. Many sources for this report, including some that confess they simply "don't trust China," nonetheless abhor the assumption that conflict is inevitable in the Pacific.

Future relations envision everything from a US and allies "containing" China to a future where both the US and China find a way realistically to share the security of the Pacific. Admiral William Fallon, head of the Pacific Command, pointed out in Beijing in September that the stakes are too great for US and Chinese military relations to remain chilly, and cloudy.

"If I were to encounter an issue with most of the countries in the Asia Pacific right now," he told reporters. "I would merely have to pick up the telephone and call someone I already know, I've already met, had a dialogue with...." Fallon continued that he felt it, "important for more than just the US-Chinese relationship" to develop a new and serious rapport. It is important for the entire region of Asia, he stated.